Project Description

Despite the common perception that bicycle trips are probably the most influenced by inclement weather, there is relatively little empirical evidence to support this claim. This paper attempts to quantify the effect of temperature variations and rainfall on the propensity of cyclists to make trips in the metropolitan area of Melbourne, Australia. The travel data used in the analysis comes from an ongoing household travel survey in Melbourne, while the weather data comes from the Bureau of Meteorology. Using data for the full year of 1994, the analysis shows that cyclists are less likely to ride in very cold or very hot weather, while increasing daily rainfall also reduces the propensity to cycle. Recreational trips are more influenced by inclement weather than other trips made for utilitarian purposes such as commuting to work or school or going shopping. The results of the analysis are used to derive seasonal adjustment factors that can be applied to the results of cycle surveys conducted under varying weather conditions.